Saturday, September 7, 2013

Geopolitics around Syria

I just drew a map showing the 30 largest World powers, according to GDP (PPP), and reflecting their governments' political stand on the so-far speculative attack against Syria:

Red: imperialist camp: government declared support for attack against Syria
Blue: anti-imperialist camp: government declared opposition to attack against Syria
Yellow: unknown official stand
Black: Syria (for reference)
Circles' areas are proportional to GDP(PPP)
(IMF data 2012, except Syria: WB 2005-2012)

Notice please that the alignment of governments on this matter may and in most cases does not reflect that of the people or even the parliament. In fact in some cases (UK), the government had to step down from its hawkish stand because of parliamentary opposition. In all cases the citizenry seems very hostile to any new imperialist adventure, especially considering how poorly justified it is (obvious psy-op) and who are the beneficiaries (Islamist terrorists of the worst kind).

Personally I believe (or at least hope) that the attack will never take place and that the various imperialist governments are actually using the parliament card to get an excuse not to intervene, while at the same time using the crisis to gauge the weight of global alliances.

But, whatever the case, we do get an interesting picture of global alignments. First of all the BRICS bloc has responded unanimously against the imperialist aggression, second some important and possibly unexpected non-BRICS states like Mexico, Egypt or Indonesia stand against the intervention. Of these the most notable is probably Germany, which also opposed (along with Italy) the intervention in Libya.

One can speculate that Merkel is just being cautious because of the elections but in fact she has such a wide advantage that she could do anything. The reality is that all this classical Western imperialism (it's just like the old Entente) is hurting German interests, which has long and strong ties with states like Iran, not to mention Russia, etc.

Also very notorious is the stand of India, often ambiguous. But maybe the most interesting development is the stand of Egypt. It is not just a calculated stand to appease the populace but apparently the Egyptian military is very hostile to any intervention in Syria and would like Assad to stay in place. In fact the anti-Damascus stand of the former President Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have been one of the triggers of the military coup.

Not just the military, heavily dependent on US aid, but also Tamarod flatly rejects any intervention against Syria and has called for the government to close the Suez canal to Western military ships in such event, calling traitors to anyone who supported the Western aggression. 

The ghost of Nasser, who nationalized the Suez canal and was adamant of pan-Arabism, has returned strongly to Egyptian politics. Many would like Al-Sissi to be another Nasser, although I suspect that this is quite unlikely.

In any case around the Syrian crisis a new cold war seems to be brewing. True that China, the rising superpower, is keeping a relatively low profile but it is also true that, would the crisis escalate to the Persian Gulf, as it is perfectly possible they would be extremely upset.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Please, be reasonably respectful when making comments. I do not tolerate in particular sexism, racism nor homophobia. The author reserves the right to delete any abusive comment.

Comment moderation before publishing is... ON